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Money supply rises to 31 trillion yuan

By Hu Yuanyuan (China Daily)
Updated: 2006-04-15 09:19

Growth in China's money supply picked up in the first quarter due to increased loans and a widening trade surplus, according to figures from the People's Bank of China.

The growth of the broad money supply, or M2, which covers cash in circulation and all deposits, climbed 18.8 per cent on a year-on-year basis to 31.1 trillion yuan (US$3.9 trillion) by the end of March, according to a statement from the central bank on Friday.

The growth rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than was recorded at the end of last year and 4.7 percentage points higher compared with the same period last year.

"The rise of M2 is triggered by growing loans and the swelling trade surplus," Wang Yuanhong, an economist with the State Information Centre (SIC), told China Daily.

The outstanding local currency loans in all financial institutions stood at 20.6 trillion yuan (US$2.6 trillion), up 14.7 per cent on a yearly basis. The rate is 1.8 percentage points higher than at the end of last year.

"More large-scale projects and infrastructure construction following the 11th Five-Year Plan contributed to the rising loans," Wang explained. "Besides, Chinese banks, which are eager to meet their business targets for this year, are also giving out more loans."

The trade surplus widened to US$11.2 billion in March, the second highest on record, from US$2.43 billion the month before, while foreign investment in the first quarter rose 6.4 per cent to US$14.3 billion, the Ministry of Commerce said this week.

According to Wang, the growth rate of the M2, although a little quicker than that of the commodity price, is still acceptable. But more liquidity, which means there is more capital in the market, could be a double-edged sword.

"If that capital flows into stock, agriculture or the high-tech sector, that will be a piece of good news. But if they rush into real estate, or sectors with high energy consumption, the government will find it a headache."

The M1, an indicator reflecting liquidity and covering cash in circulation and current account deposits, grew by 12.7 per cent on a year-on-year basis by the end of March, 2.8 percentage points higher than for the same period last year.

 China's foreign-exchange reserves jumped 32.8 per cent from a year earlier to US$875.1 billion at the end of March. The reserves grew US$200 billion last year, driven by a record US$102 billion trade surplus and US$60 billion in foreign investment.

"The ever-growing foreign-exchange reserves, a reflection of both surplus under the current account and capital account, will bring more pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi," said Li Ruoyu, an economist with the State Information Centre (SIC).