Trump passes first US election test

DES MOINES, Iowa — Donald Trump muscled past his rivals to capture the first 2024 Republican presidential contest in Iowa on Monday, according to Edison Research projections, asserting his dominance over the party as he seeks a third consecutive nomination.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley were in a battle for second place as they sought to emerge as the chief alternative to Trump, who served as president from 2017-21, Edison projected.

Trump appeared likely to win by a record-setting margin, based on early results, which would bolster his argument that he is the only Republican candidate capable of taking on Democratic President Joe Biden, despite facing four criminal cases that could go to trial before the Nov 5 general election.

With 99 percent of the expected vote tallied, Trump had 51.9 percent of the vote, while DeSantis was at 21.2 percent and Haley 19.1 percent. The largest margin of victory for an Iowa Republican caucus was 12.8 percentage points for Bob Dole in 1988.

Biden on Monday acknowledged that Trump was the "clear front-runner" to be the Republican candidate in the US election after Trump won the Iowa caucuses.

"Looks like Donald Trump just won Iowa. He's the clear front-runner on the other side at this point," Biden said on X, formerly Twitter.

The 77-year-old Trump entered Iowa as the caucus favorite, and AP VoteCast showed why he has become a juggernaut among GOP voters in the state.

The demographics favored him, but so did the issues that people prioritized: immigration and the economy.

Roughly 4 in 10 Iowa caucusgoers identified immigration as the most important issue for the nation. Those participating in the caucuses agreed with his hardline stance on finding ways to limit immigration.

Migrants in focus

About 9 in 10 back building a wall along the US-Mexico border, with about 7 in 10 expressing strong support for the idea first championed by Trump during his 2016 campaign.

The vast majority, about three-quarters, say immigrants hurt the United States, an indication there is a desire to reduce overall immigration levels.

About one-third of caucusgoers prioritized the economy. Of those who did, about half support Trump.

Iowa also exposed some national vulnerabilities for Trump, who lost his 2020 reelection bid to Democrat Joe Biden.

The suburbs are a relative weakness for Trump. That's a key challenge because AP Vote-Cast showed nearly half of voters in the 2020 general election said they lived in the suburbs. Only about one-third of Iowa Republicans in the suburbs support him.

Nor does Trump have as much appeal with college graduates. About 2 in 10 of Trump's Iowa backers hold a college degree, compared with roughly half of those who backed DeSantis and slightly more than that for Haley.

And there are Trump's legal troubles.

He was indicted multiple times in 2023 and faces the risk of one or more criminal convictions. But that appears so far to have done little damage to his standing with Republican voters.

Iowa Democrats did not vote on Monday for their presidential nominees because the party has reshuffled its nominating calendar to put states with more diverse populations ahead of Iowa this year.

They will cast their ballots by mail, with the results to be released in March.

Iowa has historically played an outsized role in presidential campaigns due to its early spot on the campaign calendar.

However, the winner of Iowa's Republican caucuses did not go on to secure the nomination in the last three competitive contests in 2008, 2012 and 2016.

Agencies via Xinhua