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Far-right is in contention as France goes to the polls

By Jonathan Powell in London | China Daily Global | Updated: 2022-04-11 11:05
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French far-right Rassemblement National party Member of Parliament and presidential candidate Marine Le Pen talks during a show broadcasted on French TV channel TF1, in Saint-Denis, north of Paris, France, March 14, 2022. [Photo/Agencies]

Opinion polls show the race between the two frontrunners for the French presidency will be very close as voters cast their ballots in Sunday's first round.

It is expected that the incumbent president, Emmanuel Macron, and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen will be the two who qualify for the election run-off on April 24, which would be a repeat of the 2017 election second round.

There are a total of 12 candidates vying for the presidency of the European Union's second-largest economy and the EU's only nuclear power. Five candidates are from the far-left and three from the far-right.

The latest forecasts for the first round of voting published on Friday showed Macron on 26.5 percent, Le Pen on 23 percent, and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon on 16.5 percent. The first results were expected to come through after polling stations in the major cities closed on Sunday evening.

Latest polls indicate that the incumbent president would have a slight advantage over Le Pen in a runoff, with a 53-47 percentage point lead. The margin of victory for Macron over Le Pen in 2017 was 66-34.

Polling has predicted that a high level of abstention may influence the result. Analysts have suggested that a third of voters may not cast a ballot, noted The Guardian. A YouGov survey last week showed 56 percent of younger voters aged 18 to 24 would back Le Pen, The Daily Mail reported.

Cost of living, health, employment and environmental concerns have been the main issues in this election, while much of Le Pen's campaign has focused on immigration. Macron entered the race late and his campaign focus has been distracted by his role mediating in the Ukraine crisis.

Macron has warned of a Brexit-type outcome, suggesting that high abstentions could lead to Le Pen emulating Britain's referendum vote to leave the EU in 2016, and former president Donald Trump's US election victory that year.

The Financial Times reported that European markets have been unsettled about the real prospect of a Le Pen victory.

The FT quoted Jessica Hinds, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, as saying "although she has ditched any explicit 'Frexit' plans, Le Pen would still completely transform France's position within Europe".

She added: "At best, she would undermine and frustrate European policymaking and at worst would seek to dismantle EU structures from the inside."

Le Pen's rivals on the far-right, Eric Zemmour and Valerie Pecresse have faded out of contention, with polls showing they are now favored by less than 10 percent of voters. For the socialists, Mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo was forecast to gain only 2 percent of first-round votes.

The FT noted that prior to pro-European centrist Macron, French presidents since 1958 had come from political movements on either the center-right or the socialist left, but that neither appear to have candidates capable of reaching the second round this time.

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