Global COVID-19 responses: 'Zero COVID-19 Case Policy' vs. 'Coexisting with COVID-19 Policy'
7. Explosive technological progress
The current measures of various countries to combat COVID-19, such as national state of emergency, lockdowns of the country and cities, self-discipline when going out, and keeping social distancing, focus on reducing and cutting off people-to-people communication to block the spread of the virus. Although the measures have achieved certain results, they cannot eradicate the virus from the root. Though the epidemic has been controlled by the strong "Zero COVID-19 Case Policy", the achievements are very weak, and any slack or loophole may trigger a resurgence.
We must rely on the technological progress to return to a safe and secure world. At present, all countries are stepping up the research and development efforts to find wonder drugs and vaccines for COVID-19.
The pandemic has been inspiring the breakthroughs in related technologies. Human beings dare not to say that they have controlled and defeated the virus until they master effective testing methods, wonder drugs and vaccines.
Opportunities also lie in crises. Every global war and crisis in modern society has brought a major transformation and explosive technological progress to mankind. For example, the WWII stimulated the development of the aviation industry and initiated the nuclear industry. The Cold War not only promoted the development of aerospace technology, but also laid the foundation for internet technology. The pandemic not only inspired the breakthroughs of technology but also greatly promoted the digital transformation of human society.
While the tension brought by the pandemic is pushing forward technological progress, it may also explore new technological paths so that those overlooked in the past can stand out. For example, traditional Chinese medicine has played an excellent role in Wuhan's anti-epidemic process and won global attention. The fight against COVID-19 may become an important opportunity for traditional Chinese medicine to go global.
Ozone is also a technological option that has been neglected due to prejudice. As early as on Feb. 18, I wrote an article appealing for the attention to the performance of ozone in sterilization and advocated the use of ozone in the COVID-19 fight[23].
Experiments in Japan have proved that the possibility of virus transmission through droplets in a closed environment is 17.7 times more than that in a non-closed environment. Therefore, an important anti-epidemic measure of the Japanese government is to call on people to avoid going to confined spaces, densely populated places, and contacting each other closely. If we can make breakthroughs in the research and development of ozone sensors and control the ozone concentration as cheaply and freely like we did in temperature control, we are expected to solve the indoor virus infection problem in the presence of people by using ozone to sterilize and kill the virus, thus freeing people from the fear of contact. The globally concerted efforts in combating the pandemic will surely inspire huge technological progress and upgrade a large number of industries.
8. Globalization will not stop
Countries around the world have been cutting off international personnel exchanges and locking down cites since the global outbreak of COVID-19. Globalization has been instantly stopped. We are inundated with worries about globalization, and doubts and even opposition about metropolitanization.
Indeed, with the further development of globalization, international personnel exchanges have been expanded. The overseas trips worldwide have surged from 400 million 30 years ago to 1.4 billion in 2018.
Against the backdrop of globalization, metropolitanization is the extension of globalization. From 1980 to 2019, 117 cities around the world saw its population increase by more than 2.5 million people, and the increased population amounted to 630 million in total. Particularly, the number of megacities with a population of over 10 million surged to 33 from only five in 1980. And these megacities are mostly centers of international exchanges, and leaders in the world economic and political development. The population of those megacities amounts to over 570 million, accounting for 15.7% of global population.
The virus has been spread worldwide through the dense aviation network and a large number of international personnel exchanges, making COVID-19 a pandemic. Many international metropolises with large populations and extensive international exchanges have been severely stricken by it.
But it must be clear that the real reason for global spread of COVID-19 is not the speed and density of international personnel exchanges, but the long existing neglect towards infectious diseases among human beings.
Actually, the progress of globalization has been accompanied by the threat of spreading infectious diseases from the very beginning. From the Age of Navigation to today, human beings have been fighting against infectious diseases and paid heavy price many times during the period. But due to the achievements in suppressing infectious diseases, many countries and international organizations tended to underrate their threat.
For example, the Global Risks Report 2020 released at the World Economic Forum listed 10 possible global risks for the future 10 years and infectious diseases were not included. In the list of the ten risks of the greatest global impact, infectious diseases only ranked the last.
Unfortunately, contrary to the prediction of the World Economic Forum, the COVID-19 pandemic brought unprecedented blows to human society at the beginning of 2020.
Most countries and regions that once experienced SARS, such as China, Singapore, South Korea, and Vietnam, have responded with measures similar to the "Zero COVID-19 Case Policy" and achieved good effects. That is probably thanks to the impressive experience of combating SARS. China has incorporated the experience of combating SARS into laws, regulations and general emergency response plans, and compiled related measures into manuals and guidebooks, which determined a quick launch of effective measures in time amid the COVID-19 outbreak and suppressed the epidemic[24].
In this sense, we do not need to be pessimistic. COVID-19 has drawn global attention and led to global investment in viral infectious diseases, which will definitely trigger an explosive technological revolution and social change. We will eventually overcome the threat from viral infectious diseases and turn the global failure to a global victory.
The pandemic will not stop globalization and international metropolitanization, but give birth to a better globalization and healthier international metropolises after pains and sufferings.
(Kurimoto Kenichi, Zhen Xuehua, and Zhao Jian contributed to data compilation and graphic production in the article.Wen Feng contributed to proofreading.)
Endnotes:
1. Zhou Muzhi, "COVID-19: Why is the medical system in metropolises so vulnerable?" In China.com.cn, Apr. 20, 2020 (http://www.china.com.cn/opinion/think/2020-04/17/content_75944655.htm)
2. Zhou Muzhi, "COVID-19: Why is the medical system in metropolises so vulnerable?" In China.org.cn, Apr. 21, 2020 (http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2020-04/21/content_75957964.htm?from=singlemessage&isappinstalled=0).
3. Zhou Muzhi, "COVID-19: Why is the medical system in metropolises so vulnerable?" In Japanese.China.org.cn, Apr. 21, 2020 (http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2020-04/21/content_75957964.htm?from=singlemessage&isappinstalled=0).
4. For information about China Integrated City Index, please refer to 2018 China Integrated City Index: Development Strategy of megalopolises issued by the People's Publishing House in September 2019.
5. There was no COVID-19 death in Wuhan after May 11, 2020.
6. Japan successfully avoided overloaded medical system as COVID-19 testing in the country can only be done after the person has gained a testing approval after medical consultations. However, limited testing has caused delayed quarantine of asymptomatic and moderate cases. Moreover, medical consultations and approval procedures before the testing also increased the work load of medical facilities.
7. A dinner party attended by 40 trainee doctors from Keio University has caused 18 people tested positive for COVID-19 in March even after the Japanese and Tokyo governments issued guidelines against mass dinner gatherings.
8. According to information published by ICN on Sept.16, nearly 3 million health care workers were infected by the novel coronavirus by Aug. 14 from data provided by 33 nurse organizations of 32 countries. For more information, please visit https://www.icn.ch/news/new-icn-report-shows-governments-are-failing-prioritize-nurses-number-confirmed-covid-19-nurse.
9. For details, please refer to the Emergency Notice of the Ministry of Transport on Effectively Preventing and Controlling the Epidemic through Traffic Control in and out of Wuhan on Jan. 23, 2020.
10. The Response Plan for Public Health Emergencies in Hubei province was deliberated and approved at the 52nd executive meeting of Hubei provincial government on Apr. 22, 2010. It is formulated in accordance with the Emergency Response Law of the People's Republic of China, the Law of the People's Republic of China on Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China, the Law of the People's Republic of China on the Prevention and Treatment of Occupational Diseases, the Frontier Health and Quarantine Law of the People's Republic of China, the Regulation on the Urgent Handling of Public Health Emergencies, the National Response Plan for Public Health Emergencies, and the Overall Response Plan for Emergencies in Hubei Province.
11. Responses to major public health emergencies are divided into four levels. The implementation of the first-level response requires to be organized by the State Council or the health authorities and other relevant departments under it. For details, please refer to the National Response Plan for Public Health Emergencies.
12. The Chinese government promulgated the Regulation on the Urgent Handling of Public Health Emergencies, on May 7, 2003, and the National Response Plan for Public Health Emergencies on Jan. 8, 2006, based on the experience of combating SARS and in accordance with the Law of the People's Republic of China on Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Diseases (coming into force as of Sept. 1, 1989). The National Response Plan for Public Emergencies was formulated based on the aforementioned law, regulation and overall plan. On Aug. 30, 2007, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress approved the Emergency Response Law of the People's Republic of China, further systemizing the above-mentioned law, regulation and response plans. On Jan. 20, days before the lockdown of Wuhan, the National Health Commission issued its No. 1 announcement of 2020, categorizing the novel coronavirus pneumonia into the Class B infectious diseases stipulated in the Law of the People's Republic of China on Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, and adopting prevention and control measures for Class A infectious diseases.
13. US President Trump deployed the USNS Mercy and USNS Comfort to Los Angeles and New York respectively in late March 2020. Both hospital ships have 1,000 hospital beds. Although they are not suitable for patients infected with the novel coronavirus, they can accommodate a large number of patients with common diseases, so that local medical facilities can free up more beds for patients infected with the novel coronavirus.
14. For details, please refer to Ferguson NM, Laydon D, Nedjati-Gilani G, et al., "Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand", in Imperial College London HP , March 16, 2020.(http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/77482)
15. On March 16, the White House issued the coronavirus guidelines, calling on Americans to practice social distancing; avoid gatherings of more than 10 people; avoid eating and drinking in bars, restaurants, and public food courts; avoid unnecessary trips, shopping or social activities; avoid going to sanatoriums, old people's homes; encouraging schooling from home across the country. On March 29, Trump extended the federal social distancing guidelines, which originally expired on March 30, to April 30.
16. For details, please refer to Solomon Hsiang, Daniel Allen, Sébastien Annan-Phan, Kendon Bell, Ian Bolliger, Trinetta Chong, Hannah Druckenmiller, Luna Yue Huang, Andrew Hultgren, Emma Krasovich, Peiley Lau, Jaecheol Lee, Esther Rolf, Jeanette Tseng & Tiffany Wu, "The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic", in Nature, June 8, 2020.
17. On Feb. 17, 2020, the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council issued guidelines on taking science-based, targeted, region-specific, and multi-level measures on the epidemic prevention and control. The guidelines ordered governments at provincial levels to make dynamic adjustments to the list of high-risk, medium-risk and low-risk areas in their jurisdictions. According to the risk criteria defined in the guidelines, cities, counties and districts with no new confirmed cases?in the last 14 days are categorized as low-risk areas. Those with fewer than 50 cases or those with over 50 but without a concentrated outbreak are classified as medium-risk areas, and those with over 50 cases as well as a concentrated outbreak are classified as high-risk areas.
18. Wohlrabe Klaus, Peichl Andreas, Link Sebastian ,Leiss Felix, Demmelhuber Katrin, "Die Auswirkungen der Coronakrise auf die deutsche Wirtschaft", in ifo Schnelldienst Digital, No.7, May18, 2020.
19. Jared M. Diamond, "Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies", W.W. Norton, New York, 1997.
20. "Zhou Muzhi Hypothesis"was firstly published the seminar to commemorate the 120th anniversary of Tokyo Keizai University on Nov.21, 2020.
21. Manish Sagar, Katherine Reifler, Michael Rossi, Nancy S. Miller, Pranay Sinha, Laura White, and Joseph P. Mizgerd, "Recent endemic coronavirus infection is associated with less severe COVID-19", in Journal of Clinical Investigation, 30 Sep 2020.
22. Homepage of the Isotope Science Center of the University of Tokyo, July 16, 2020(https://www.ric.u-tokyo.ac.jp/topics/2020/ig-20200716_1.pdf)
23.Zhou Muzhi, "Ozone: a powerful weapon to combat COVID-19 outbreak" In China.org.cn, Feb. 26, 2020.(http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2020-02/26/content_75747237.htm)
24. China has turned the experience in combating SARS into laws, regulations, manuals and guidebooks and those are the keys to combating the epidemic. On the contrary, in the US, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention prepared a guideline for restarting world economic activities, only to be rejected by the Trump administration in the first 10 days of May for being too detailed.
