Avowed intent

China's development plans will incorporate step-by-step goals for it to realize its pledge

In September, in a video address at the general debate of the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly, President Xi Jinping announced that China tries to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.China currently has the world's largest fossil fuel system (production and consumption), accounting for around 85 percent of its total primary energy. The Chinese economy has generally maintained stable growth against headwinds such as the Sino-US trade war and the pandemic. But achieving carbon neutrality within the next 40 years is an ambitious goal that will pose great challenges as well as bring opportunities, given the impact of previous emissions reduction policies on the broader economy.

The overall goal of carbon neutrality is to achieve a zero carbon footprint, with organizations, businesses and individuals taking action to remove as much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as each put in to it.

Achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 is a more ambitious goal than previous emissions reduction targets proposed by the Chinese government. It not only requires a reduction in carbon emissions, but also requires significant use of negative emissions technologies and activities that contribute to net zero emissions.

To achieve carbon neutrality, China, on the emissions side, should increase the energy efficiency of its industrial and electric power sectors and promote the use of renewables. Constrained by resource, technology, security and economic factors, some carbon emissions are inevitable, which can partly be absorbed by natural carbon sinks such as forests and the sea and partly offset by artificial carbon sinks such as carbon capture, utilization and storage technologies.

As a highly industrialized country, most of China's carbon emissions are primarily from power generation and its industrial sectors, a smaller proportion from the transportation sector and an even smaller proportion from the agricultural, commercial and construction sectors. Hence, China should start from the easier part - the secondary sector which accounts for 83 percent of total emissions, and gradually forge ahead into more difficult fields. In addition, China could gain carbon credits through forest carbon sinks and sea carbon sinks to help achieve carbon neutrality. Currently, given the contradiction between massive carbon emissions and limited land resources, China's forest carbon sinks and sea carbon sinks are insufficient to offset its carbon emissions.

The combined application of energy storage technologies and power generation from renewable energy sources, which reduces volatility and strengthens flexibility of the power system, may become a major means for realizing large-scale deployment of renewables, helping to reduce carbon emissions and at the same time provide safe and stable electricity supply.

When striving to achieve carbon neutrality, China should attach great importance to the development of clean energy technologies, in which solar and wind power technologies currently take the lead. Photovoltaic power generation has bright prospects in terms of large-scale deployment with sustained cost reductions for both commercial and civil use. Over the past few years, China has not only become the world's largest supplier of solar photovoltaic power but also the biggest market with regard to installed capacity. Hydrogen energy is also a widely watched source of clean energy. The White Paper on China's Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry, the first such white paper, points out that hydrogen energy will become a major component of China's energy mix. It is expected to account for 10 percent of the total by 2050. The biggest challenge facing the utilization of hydrogen energy is its cost-effectiveness. However, a report released by the Hydrogen Council launched during the 2017 World Economic Forum in Davos, predicts that the comprehensive cost of hydrogen energy will drop through greatly expanding the production capacity of hydrogen energy and its peripheral equipment by approximately 50 percent by 2030, making it one of the most competitive alternative energy sources.

Most new energy, energy storage and energy conservation industries will usher in an era of rapid growth following the announcement of China's carbon neutrality goal. Investing in these industries is likely to deliver long-term benefits with the formation of industrial chains, such as those for energy conservation technologies and equipment, new energy vehicles, and solar and wind power. Development of new energy needs to be accelerated while carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) research and development projects are likely to witness exponential growth over the next 10 years. Other sectors, such as forestation, utilization of forestry and agricultural residues and waste-to-energy, will also enjoy fast growth.

To date, a number of developed countries have proposed their carbon neutrality goals through legislation and the formulation of regulations and policies. But China has become the first of the world's major emitters to put forward its carbon neutrality goal, which is likely to pressure other major emitters and promote the reduction of carbon emissions globally. China should intensify communication and exchanges with other countries, such as the members of the European Union. Furthermore, China could pursue mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation via economic and technological cooperation with other developing nations in emissions reduction, especially in fields in which China has a clear lead.

Starting from the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China should put forth emissions reduction goals in every five-year plan for the next 40 years and provide necessary policy support for realizing the goals. The formulation and implementation of relevant laws and regulations are a must for ensuring the realization of carbon neutrality. The integration of the carbon neutrality goal into China's development plans will ensure the country has the necessary laws and regulations to abide by as it advances toward the realization of its carbon neutrality promise.

The author is the dean with the China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy at Xiamen University. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.