Bloomberg heads to his first Democratic debate with momentum

Former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg's challenge to the Democratic Party's nominating process continues to show signs of success as he climbs in the polls and has qualified for Wednesday's presidential candidate debate in Las Vegas despite skipping early contests.

Bloomberg didn't compete in the Iowa caucuses or New Hampshire's primary and isn't on the ballot in Nevada or South Carolina, allowing him to introduce himself to voters through paid advertising — and creating added pressure to perform well in the debate.

"The debate format has never favored Bloomberg," Jonathan Zogby, CEO of research company Zogby Analytics, told China Daily. "People want to see him in action. There's a lot riding on how he performs. He's been hyped — now he has to deliver."

How Bloomberg responds to likely attacks from other candidates on the stage will be key to gauging his performance, because Democratic voters want a candidate who can respond cogently to what's almost certain to be barbs from President Donald Trump during the fall campaign, Zogby said.

A new NPR/PBS/Marist College polls pegs Bloomberg's support in the Nevada caucus at 19 percent, putting him in second place behind Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders at 31 percent, but ahead of former vice-president Joe Biden (15 percent), US Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (12 percent), US Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota (9 percent) and former South Bend, Indiana, mayor Pete Buttigieg (8 percent).

Sanders won the popular vote in Iowa and New Hampshire. His lead and Biden's continued slide were generally expected, but the news is that Bloomberg's advertising blitz has allowed him to more than double the numbers that Klobuchar and Buttigieg have.

Bloomberg's spending may be key in upcoming races in large states, where the retail political skills Klobuchar and Buttigieg demonstrated in Iowa and New Hampshire will be less important as paid radio, TV and internet advertising take over. In December, Bloomberg polled in the low single digits.

"Sabato's Crystal Ball'', a nonpartisan newsletter published by the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia and founded by political analyst Larry Sabato, said Sanders has now supplanted Biden as a "weak frontrunner" for the nomination.

Center-left candidates received "substantially more support" than progressive candidates in the New Hampshire primary, but the traditional Democratic Party vote was split and allowed Sanders, a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, to win with about 26 percent of the vote. Sabato said the race remains "very uncertain" as it shifts to larger, more demographically diverse states in the coming weeks.

The Democratic National Committee changed the rules to qualify for Wednesday's debate in Las Vegas, allowing Bloomberg — a multibillionaire who is self-funding his campaign — to share the stage with other candidates for the first time.

To qualify for January's debates under the previous rules, candidates had to receive donations from 225,000 individuals, up from 200,000, with at least 1,000 donors in a minimum of 20 states.

Bloomberg, the former three-term mayor of New York City who made his fortune by launching a financial news and information service, easily met the polling threshold for Wednesday's debate after spending millions on advertising. Previously, Bloomberg exceeded the 10 percent support requirement in polls conducted by Fox News, Quinnipiac and Monmouth.

But Bloomberg isn't on the ballot in Nevada's Feb 22 caucuses or in South Carolina's Feb 29 primary. He is building name recognition for the March 3 "Super Tuesday" primaries, when voters got to the polls in 14 states, including California and Texas — the nation's two most populous states, with about 40 percent of the population.

The Los Angeles Times reported that Bloomberg has spent $124 million on ads in Super Tuesday states, or more than 12 times the $10 million spent by Sanders.

Bloomberg's wealth and his willingness to spend it during the campaign place him at odds with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.

"I think that's his appeal at the moment," Zogby said. "I think many Democrats want someone who understands business and can help with the economy while championing liberal causes. Biden doesn't have that now — and maybe never did. Bloomberg is seen as the alternative to the progressives Sanders and Warren."

Bloomberg, whose net worth is estimated at $64 billion by Forbes magazine, has vowed to "spend whatever it takes" to defeat Trump in November.

Trump faces token opposition in the Republican primaries.

In a national poll, Zogby found that 24 percent of Democrats favor Sanders, 20 percent support Bloomberg, and 18 percent back Biden, with the remainder of the vote split among other candidates.

"I think Sanders will be ahead after Super Tuesday," Zogby said. "Bloomberg's supporters want to see if he can win some states and be within striking distance of Sanders. This is Bloomberg's moment. Is he peaking too soon or is there a craving for someone who's not so far left?"

Ann Althouse, a law professor at the University of Wisconsin, raised a basic point on her blog:

"It's crazy that Bloomberg has achieved such status in the race without exposing his candidate skills to the public. We have no idea what impression he will make on the debate stage, which will be crucial for challenging Trump. I wonder if Democrats aren't getting themselves into terrible trouble."