Competition can lead to fairer world order

The world saw a new wave of change and development among the three major countries, China, the United States and Russia. To begin with, there is a new momentum in China-US strategic competition, meaning a new dimension has been added to the most important bilateral relationship of the 21st century.

On the other hand, China and Russia have strengthened their already steady relations based on friendship and close strategic cooperation.

US－Russia relations face many problems

By contrast, the US-Russia relationship faces troubles on various fronts. And due to the US internal political factors and the two countries' inherent strategic contradictions, bilateral ties are now full of instability and uncertainty, posing a potential risk for the world at large.

Since the relationships among the world's three major countries have far-reaching consequences for the world, major re-adjustments to the global structure may be on the cards.

Early last year, the US government started imposing additional tariffs on steel and aluminum products imported from China (and some other countries), putting Sino-US ties under strain and escalating trade conflicts. And that the Donald Trump administration's first National Security Strategy report, issued in December 2017, describes China as the major strategic rival (along with Russia) makes it clear the two countries will encounter more problems in various critical fields.

The series of documents on national security strategy and national defense that the Trump administration has issued since 2017 indicates it has basically devised its global strategy keeping in mind China and Russia are its main security concerns and strategic competitors.

As China and the US have contradictory outlooks on various competitive areas, their priority is to resolve the trade conflicts, which have also become the greatest variables. In August 2017, the Office of the US Trade Representative initiated an investigation into Chinese imports according to Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974. And in March 2018, the Trump administration announced it would raise tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods.

Since then, it has been threatening to continue raising tariffs on more Chinese goods. The Trump administration also launched a series of policies to support US telecommunication equipment companies, and weaken Chinese companies such as ZTE and Huawei. Slowly, the Sino-US trade frictions are becoming the most controversial issue in bilateral competition.

Confrontation in various fields of competition

Apart from the trade frictions, China and the US are involved in confrontational competition in other fields, too. The Taiwan question is still a sensitive issue for Sino-US ties, especially because in August last year US President Donald Trump signed the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019, which attempts to enhance military ties between Washington and Taiwan.

Also, after the Dominican Republic, EL Salvador and Panama severed "diplomatic relations" with Taiwan last year, the US, to demonstrate its objection to their moves, withdrew its ambassadors from the three countries. But it seems the US administration has restrained itself, as it has not made further troubles for those three countries.

In the South China Sea, however, the US continues to strengthen its military presence, threatening China's national interests and maritime rights, in an attempt to strengthen ties with its Asian allies.

Still, it appears Sino-US competition is characterized by their respective economic interests, and may not lead to an all-round military and political confrontation.

As far as China-Russia relations are concerned, both sides share positive development momentum and have further strengthened mutual trust, setting a new example for international relations. The two sides have also continued to deepen strategic and security cooperation, maintaining steady growth in bilateral trade and deepening innovative cooperation.

First, strategic and security cooperation is significant to the Sino-Russian comprehensive strategic partnership. Last year, the two sides reached a consensus on many important issues including the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the Middle East situation and the Iran nuclear issue at the 14th round of China-Russia strategic security consultation. Beijing and Moscow have also enhanced military exchanges.

Closer China-Russia ties can yield more benefits

Second, local-level cooperation between China and Russia has deepened, with both sides capitalizing on the opportunities as well as complementing each other's advantages to improve their local development strategy. For example, at the fourth Eastern Economic Forum in Russia, the two sides signed a cooperation document to improve connectivity.

Third, Sino-Russian trade potential is being tapped. Since last year, bilateral trade has shown huge complementary potential. Russia faces many economic difficulties mainly because of the Western sanctions. But by making the agricultural sector a new driver of economic growth, it has offset some of the effects of the Western sanctions.

Fourth, the two countries have also made tremendous efforts to upgrade innovative cooperation including in energy, infrastructure, manufacturing, agriculture, information technology and education while formulating relevant laws and regulations.

Thus, Sino-Russian ties can be described as a mature and stable comprehensive strategic partnership, not least because both sides have similar views on the international situation and share common interests. Aside from being committed to developing their economies, they are also seeking to make the global political and economic order more equitable and rational.

As for US-Russia relations, they are still to show any signs of improvement. Although, the two countries are looking for collaboration opportunities, US-Russia ties remain unstable owing to their structural contradictions and strategic conflicts.

US-Russia ties underwent new changes last year. Even though Trump made an effort to put bilateral ties back on track, it could not ease tensions thanks to the two sides' hostile attitudes toward each other in Syria and on the Iran nuclear issue.

The US-Russia unpredictable relationship could develop into risks for the world because, after the midterm US elections, the Democrats have been exerting more pressure on Trump to tackle Moscow more effectively. The resultant spillover effect would have a big impact on global oil prices, monetary exchange rates and emerging economies.

Both challenges and opportunities for China

However, the seemingly volatile US-Russia ties mean not only challenges but also opportunities for China. As the US imposes more sanctions on Russia, it will prompt China and Russia to strengthen their economic and strategic cooperation. In addition, China's Belt and Road Initiative could be synergized with Russia's "Greater Eurasia plan" to create new development opportunities.

In other words, the new momentum of the relations among China, the US and Russia constitute the main plank of major country relationship. And the changes in these relations should be assessed based on the vicissitudes of the international power system, as the competition to develop a fairer and more suitable global governance model could lead to a change in the world order.

The author is a research associate at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.