Economist predicts 6-7% GDP growth for China

China will probably achieve an annual GDP growth of 6 to 7 percent in the coming decade, Lawrence Lau, senior economist at Chinese University of Hong Kong, said on Nov 10.

China managed to grow 6.7 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, but the growth challenge will become ever more severe in the coming years as restructuring reforms continue.

"I'm optimistic that China's economy can grow by 6 to 7 percent for the next five to 10 years," Lau said at a symposium sponsored by the Asian Development Bank to commemorate the 30th anniversary of its partnership with China.

China has set a target for its GDP and per capita income to double from 2010 to 2020, which means its annual GDP growth needs to be about 6.5 percent to meet that target. But as it carries out economic restructuring reforms amid the unstable global economic situation, which has already driven down its industrial and export growth, some analysts have expressed doubts that China can achieve its economic goals by 2020.

Lau said the Chinese government had done a fairly good job in maintaining the growth momentum.

"Although the growth rate has dropped, it has held above 6 percent," he said.

He said China should pay close attention to the problem of inadequate demand: "It is a big problem, and policymakers can make policies to stimulate demand."

But he said China has an advantage in stimulating aggregate demand through government policies. For example, he said, as it tries to reduce PM2.5 air pollution - small particles that can enter the lungs and bloodstream and damage health -in big cities, China can increase demand for environmental protection-related products and services.

Lau also praised China's economic achievements over the past three decades. It has maintained a GDP growth of about 10 percent on average since the early 1980s, which is a "miracle" and a "spectacular success", Lau said.

Chinese officials participating in the symposium said the development bank has played an important role in helping China achieve its success.

"The ADB has provided resources, techniques, and policy suggestions to support and promote China learning from other countries and more closely cooperating with Asia and other countries," said Chen Shixin, a senior official at the Ministry of Finance.

xinzhiming@chinadaily.com.cn

(China Daily Africa Weekly 11/18/2016 page28)