Analysts look at who's doing what on emissions

With United Nations climate negotiations entering their final leg, all eyes are on Paris, where global leaders will gather from Nov 30 to seal what is meant to be a new, ambitious and legally binding climate deal.

Before this can happen, 196 countries, including China, parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, each had to submit their post-2020 greenhouse gas emissions reduction pledges.

These so-called intended nationally determined contributions will form the basis of any agreement in Paris.

But the question remains: Are all parties making a fair contribution to tackling climate change?

Recent analysis by a consortium of climate research organizations called Climate Action Tracker says that the promises governments have made to limit their national greenhouse gas emissions are insufficient to limit warming to the 2 C threshold. The group analyzed 15 of the 29 contribution promises and rated seven as "inadequate" (Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea and Russia) and six as "medium" (China, the European Union, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland and the US).

Friends of Europe, a think tank in Brussels, has also studied the intended nationally determined contributions that key global players have submitted in an effort to clarify who is doing what and to assess whether the commitments will be enough to limit the rise in global temperature to below 2 C.

China is the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, accounting for 30 percent of global emissions, almost double that of the second largest, the US.

Friends of Europe says that China has committed to a 60 to 65 percent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 compared with 2005 levels, with 20 percent of energy coming from non-fossil fuels by 2030.

If this comes to fruition, China's share of global CO2 emissions will be 29.1 percent, meaning it will remain the world's biggest emitter.

But what about the EU, the US and Russia, among the world's biggest polluters, together accounting for about 30 percent of global emissions?

The EU is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, leaving it with a 10.5 percent share in global CO2 emissions, making it the world's third-biggest emitter.

The US has pledged to cut emissions by 26 to 28 percent by 2025 compared with 2005 levels, a 15.1 percent share in global emissions (making it the world's second-biggest emitter), while Russia aims for a 25 to 30 percent reduction by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, a 5.1 percent global share, ranking it fifth.

Friends of Europe says the EU, which ranks third behind China, is a success story when it comes to reducing CO2 emissions: its missions have fallen consistently since 1990, reaching a 14-percent reduction last year compared with 1990 levels, in line with commitments under the Kyoto Protocol and Europe's goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent by 2020.

This has been undermined somewhat, though, by the effectiveness of the EU's Emissions Trading System, the world's first international cap-and-trade program and the cornerstone of EU climate policy, which has been hit by falling carbon prices.

Friends of Europe says that rapid economic growth, industrialization and urbanization in China, combined with a "mounting thirst for energy", have left the country severely affected by the adverse effects of air pollution, resource use and climate change.

However, keen to sustain the country's economic growth, the Chinese government has in the last decade put forward a series of ambitious policies and investments to support green growth and shift away from coal.

Friends of Europe says efforts undertaken by the Chinese leadership have brought "significant" results: The country has emerged as the world's leader in renewable energy investment, coal use has dropped and carbon intensity has fallen by more than 30 percent.

With new 2030 targets submitted on June 30, China has committed itself to increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in its energy mix by about 20 percent, reaching a peak in emissions before 2030, and increasing its forest stock volume by about 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level. The pledge builds on the historic US-China announcement on climate change in November, when China, a fierce advocate of "common but differentiated responsibilities", agreed, for the first time on the world stage to cap its emissions before 2030.

Nevertheless, despite the impressive achievement of the new national energy strategy, the Friends of Europe study insists that "much remains to be done" to reduce China's heavy dependence on coal and to bring about a genuine reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

For China Daily

(China Daily European Weekly 09/18/2015 page14)